EPL Final Day Showdown: The European Race

INTRODUCTION

After months of the successful showdown in one of the most popular football leagues in the world amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, we are now finally down to the very Match week of England’s elite league. Months of endless action, a scintillating display of football from some of the best clubs in the world and a tom and jerry race for securing the top 10 spots in the league was all this season presented us for. Now at the fag end of it, the league should have been on the brink of already confirming the top spots. But it is just antagonistic to what was predicted by the experts as the top4 teams. Many teams were led by big margins of points at the halfway stage of the league and were in their comfort zone.

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The situation though did not take much time to change rapidly and the teams which were way behind are now leading. They have entered the race for competing for the UCL and UEL spot and are serious contenders now. Manchester City has already won the EPL thanks to their unassailable lead and so is United who secured the 2ndspot. The fight is now on for the last two UCL spots as well as the Europa spots.

We at BTM dive into all of the possible outcomes that will emerge after the completion of this final gameweek 38. 

FOR UCL QUALIFICATION

Keeping in line with the other top football leagues of Europe, the EPL has also emerged as one of the most enticing ones. As of now, three teams viz., Leicester, Liverpool, and Chelsea are in the race to secure the top4 spot. So without making any delay, let’s look at all the permutations and combinations ahead of this gameweek.

FIRST CASE  

1)CHELSEA VS VILLA – CHELSEA WINS

2)LIVERPOOL VS CRYSTAL PALACE -LIVERPOOL WINS 

3)LEICESTER VS SPURS – LEICESTER WINS OR LOSES

In this scenario, we have considered that all three of the teams in the race wins their respective matches. It would result in Chelsea finishing the league at 70 points, Liverpool and Leicester at 69 points respectively. This will be a quite complicated situation as the Reds and Foxes would end on the same points. But Liverpool has a superior goal difference of 4 on their hands and would progress in the event of a tie. But if Leicester manages to beat the Spurs by a big margin, then they will have an outside chance of finishing fourth. It seems quite unlikely against a big team like Spurs and this case will likely result in Chelsea and Liverpool progressing. If this occurs, then it will be a heartbreak for Rodger’s men who have been impressive throughout the season. Klopp and Tuchel would walk away as happy men.

FIRST CASE  FOR  UEFA  (UCL) QUALIFICATION

SECOND CASE

1)CHELSEA VS VILLA – CHELSEA WINS OR LOSES

2)LIVERPOOL VS CRYSTAL PALACE -LIVERPOOL LOSES OR DRAWS  

3)LEICESTER VS SPURS – LEICESTER WINS

This case is also a very likely outcome considering the form crystal palace is in. If Palace does an incredible job at Anfield, Leicester would certainly be very happy with it. They would get the golden chance to play in the Champion’s League next year. In this event, Chelsea would finish on 70 or 67 points followed by Leicester at 69 points. Liverpool would miss out on the UCL spot who will end on either 67 or 66 points. It is a straightforward outcome and happening this means that Liverpool will drop to 5th spot. Chelsea and Leicester would finally accompany United and City in Europe’s elite league.

THIRD CASE                 

  1. CHELSEA VS VILLA – VILLA WINS OR DRAWS
  2. LIVERPOOL VS PALACE – LIVERPOOL WINS
  3. LEICESTER VS SPURS – LEICESTER WINS

This case is also a possibility in the build-up to decide the eventual qualifiers for next year’s UCL. Let’s take into account that Chelsea gets held by Villa or suffers a shock defeat. If Villa manages to do something extraordinary against Chelsea, they would certainly present a golden opportunity to the other two. Beating or holding off Chelsea means they are doing a generous job for Leicester and Liverpool. If Chelsea doesn’t win against Villa, they will finish either on 67 or 68 points. Leicester and Liverpool would end ahead of them on 69 points each. This indeed would be humiliating for a  Chelsea side who were exceptional this year under Tuchel. Leicester would get their coveted Champion’s League qualification and Liverpool would somewhat be able to gain somewhat from what has been a disastrous season for them.

Third CASE  FOR  UEFA  (UCL) QUALIFICATION

EUROPA QUALIFICATION

After all the UCL qualification dilemmas, the focus now shifts onto the Europa League qualification where a much more tricky race awaits for us on the final day. It is needless to mention that one of Liverpool, Chelsea, or Leicester will occupy one spot for the Europa League. As per the conditions mentioned above, two teams will get into the UCL and another will secure a UEL spot.

The fight is now on for the lone sixth place which is left up for grabs. As of now, West Ham and Tottenham will be going head to head to acquire the spot. They are in contention wholly for the place along with Everton who has an unrealistic mathematical chance. The Toffees will have to win by a big margin of 8or more goals which are practically impossible against City. So, we take a look at the conditions possible for the remaining two teams for UEL qualification.

LIKELY OUTCOMES

FIRST CASE

  1. WEST HAM VS SOUTHAMPTON – WEST HAM LOSES 
  2. TOTTENHAM VS LEICESTER – TOTTENHAM WINS

This outcome is one of the possible ones to happen as West Ham has a tricky fixture at home to Southampton. Meanwhile, the Spurs also have an away game at the King Power Stadium against FA cup champions Leicester. Both the matches are quite competitive and you can’t predict a winner so early. If West Ham loses, they will finish the season with 62 points in their kitty giving the Spurs an outright chance to grab the sixth spot.

A win for Spurs against the Foxes will mean they will be level on points with the Hammers. But by virtue of their superior goal difference, they will ultimately progress into the Europa League. It will be a consolation award for the 2019 UCL finalists who had a far bad season this year. It remains to be seen whether Spurs can come up with top performance on display to secure a UEL spot.

SECOND CASE

  1. WEST HAM VS SOUTHAMPTON- WEST HAM WINS OR DRAWS
  2. TOTTENHAM VS LEICESTER – ANY RESULT

This result will act as a heartbreaking moment for the Spurs who need WESTHAM to lose at any cost. In the event of Westham winning their final home game of the season against the Saints, they will just snatch it. It’s a much reality one for the Hammers who only have to hold Saints at the London Stadium. If Westham wins the encounter, the Spurs can’t progress to Europa regardless of any result. They still will be fighting to get a spot in the inaugural UEFA conference league, which they will grab if they win. They have a better goal difference compared to Everton and will secure the 7th spot if they win. Nonetheless, Spurs’ hopes of playing the Europa will be dashed if Westham wins or draw their fixture against Southampton.

 FOR  UEFA  (Europa and Conference league) QUALIFICATION

UEFA CONFERENCE LEAGUE QUALIFYING SCENARIO

Another point that is to be noted is the UEFA will start the UEFA conference league from the 2021-22 season and it will have 1 participant from England. Tottenham and Everton will battle it out to secure a berth in this league. The equation is simple for this, whoever wins will be the gainer. If Spurs win against Leicester, they will advance into the league as the first-ever team from England to do so. On the other hand, if Everton win against City and Spurs loses or draws with Leicester, the Toffees will progress.  In the event of both Spurs and Everton winning it, it will be the Londoners who will go through as they have a much better goal difference with respect to Everton.

So this place also promises to provide us with a quite enjoyable battle between the two teams.    

CONCLUSION

The final day of the league is going to be an enthralling one as three teams battle it out for the final two remaining spots in the top four, another two for the Europa spots, and two lastly for the conference league. In the end, one team will eventually miss out on UCL and would play in the Europa League.  Similar is the case for the other two leagues also. The matches are all slated to start at 20:30 IST or 15:00 GMT and so football fans have to simultaneously keep an eye on all of these. Till then, stay tuned in and see which of these teams get the chance to play European football next season. We hope that the best team might win and expect an entertaining contest to occur between the sides.

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